Scenarization and strategic Planning in complex contexts
The paper aims to discuss the supporting role of the scenario planning methodology in strategic planning activities. The topic has been at the centre of the scientific debate on the strategic management field for over 40 years, and is addressed through a wide variety of approaches, which led to the stratification of a robust but extremely varied theoretical body. At the same time, the empirical research comes to contradictory and not very versatile conclusions.
In the light of the aforementioned considerations, the objective of this work is twofold. On the one hand, the analysis of papers on scenario planning published since 1996 in the ANVUR journals within the “13/B1” scientific sector. The research and analysis of the papers made it possible to identify four recurring central themes: the role of scenario planning, the interconnection of time frames, the process of scenario planning and the types of scenarios. On the other hand, the design of a conceptual framework that aims to provide the fundamental coordinates for the setting of empirical research that investigate if and how scenario methodology is able to support the strategic planning process in complex contexts. In particular, the framework explicates different roles according to the different conditions of firm and environmental complexity.
Keywords: Scenario planning, complexity, management control tools, strategic control, strategic planning.
